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KMID : 1007320120180030180
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Journal of the Korean Society of Menopause
2012 Volume.18 No. 3 p.180 ~ p.186
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Estimation of the Relative Risk for Breast Cancer in Korean Women Using Gail Model
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Lee Eun-Sil
Seo Jae-Seung
Hong Yeon-Pyo
Park Hyoung-Moo
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Abstract
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Objectives: The aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for breast cancer using the Gail model and to observe the relationship between mammographic density and the 5-year risk of breast cancer. Methods: A total of 600 women who visited the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology in Chung-Ang University Yongsan Hospital were screened using the Gail model to estimate their relative risk for breast cancer. The correlation between the 5-year risk of breast cancer and the mammographic density of 462 women who had performed mammography within 1 year of the study was analyzed. Results: The mean age of the study subjects was 56.7 ± 8.2 years. The estimated mean values for the 5-year risk and lifetime risk for breast cancer were 1.23 ± 0.46% and 7.90 ± 2.76% respectively in all study subjects. The estimated mean value of the 5-year risk for breast cancer increased with age. Otherwise, the estimated lifetime risk for breast cancer decreased with age. Ninety-two women (15.3%) were classified as high-risk because their estimated 5-year risk was over 1.67% or their lifetime risk was over 20%. High risk percentages according to age were 10.5% in the thirties, 0.84% in the forties, 7.2% in the fifties, 32.7% in the sixties, and 35.7% in the seventies. Among the high risk postmenopausal women, 52.2% were taking hormone therapy. Mammographic density was not significantly correlated with the estimated 5-year risk for breast cancer. Conclusion: About fifteen percent of study subjects were at high risk for breast cancer according to the estimated 5-year risk or lifetime risk for breast cancer using Gail model. Mammographic density was not correlated with the 5-year risk for breast cancer.
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KEYWORD
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Breast neoplasms, Gail model, Mammography, Risk assessment
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